BJ Upton's Failure to Launch

The Braves were expecting big things from BJ Upton this year. His home runs coming into the season with the Rays were:

2010-18
2011-23
2012-28

This year with the Braves he only hit 9 in 126 games. Many articles involving the psychological aspects of going to a new team and playing with his brother Justin are prevalent online. To me it's obvious his mechanics are off. Mechanically speaking, BJ Upton will never be confused with Joe Mauer but his new hitch has created a monster. A lot of players will waggle before the ball is pitched and some will do a bat tilt which applies pressure on the wrists going into Launch (heel plant after stride). I suppose it breaks the inertia or establishes a feeling the player likes when he is getting ready to swing.

Evan Longoria, a former teammate of Upton's, has a tilt that moves the bat head just in front of his head with the barrel basically going toward the pitcher. From here he will move the bat to a more conventional position as his hands work back. I wont pretend to know why Longoria does this, but there is obviously some comfort that gets him to a good hitting position.

Now lets take a look at the progression of BJ Uptons hitch to Launch.

2011

2012

and this season 2013

Obviously, there has been a steady progression to a bat tilt similiar to Longoria in his pre swing movement. Unfortunately, his tilt waggles toward 1st base, if not the home dugout. Not to mention, the ball is halfway home when Upton waggles. In Longoria's tilt this happens as early as the pitchers release. Big difference in timing... how could he possibly control the inner half with this hitch? If he could find the same pre-swing movement he had in 2012 he will be more successful.

Rookie of the Year Changes

In 2011 Mike Trout started his first stint in the big leagues. While only batting .220 in 40 games, most knew there was something amazing about this player. I do remember thinking, great defense and amazing speed. Nothing about his hitting, aside from his exciting and regular infield hits, stood out to me. But then again, you couldn't help but think, "man if this guy could hit he would be a freak!". Then, all of the sudden, Bobby Abreu is hurt and Trout is called up in 2012.

He was a FREAK! What the heck happened? Well, many would say his .220 in 40 games in 2011 was meaningless. He was simply not familiar with big league pitching and on and on...Then, suddenly we are to accept that he familiarized himself enough to dominate all of the MLB's pitchers just by giving it a little thought in the off-season before the 2012 Rookie of the Year season? No...I can't accept that. So, I went back and looked at all of his home runs starting with the 6 in 2011. Not bad, considering he only played 40 games, but his BABIP (batting average for balls in play) .247? In 2012 his numbers jumped, batting .323 with a .383 BABIP! Oh, and he hit 30 home runs...

The image below demonstrates the difference in Trouts load to launch sequence from 2011 to 2012. I drew lines indicating the bat and where the knob is pointing. In 2011 he was set up to swing around the ball a touch as his 6 home runs were all pull side, and in 2012 & 2013 he was set up to cover the entire plate. His spray charts after this change show his ability to use the entire field as from this load and launch position it is "easier" to get to the pitch at any location (except perhaps the high pitch-which are few and far between in the mlb). Also, his crouch is less exaggerated as he is more upright with less bend in the knees. These may seem like subtle changes, but I think they're significant given the amount of reps these players take and something as simple as a grip change can feel awkward.

Better Not Give Up on Wallace

http://gif shop.tv/m/IHKM3LATAH/

The relationship is scary. Wallace and Adrian Gonzalez look identical. I would have Wallace tighten his hands into himself slightly and use the top half more as a unit through the ball. He uses his top side like a slingshot with all parts being separate. I like the kinetic link but think he needs to let the shoulders arms and hands work a little more together. This guy could be really good, but I'm afraid the Astros will give up on him #brettWallace

Posey Contact to Finish

Absolutely perfect! Shoulders and bat working on the same plane. Follow through is a result of the swing plane not a "finish high" cue.

Contact to Finish

I am not a fan of the manufactured finish. Many players are told to finish high, while the best players finish high as a result of swinging on a plane that helps them pass through the ball to a high finish. Most youth players have swings built to contact...while high level players maximize their bat speed through contact. Notice the back shoulder in both photos. It is imperative to allow the backside to continue through contact to help hitters get through the ball with authority.

Highest vs. Lowest IFFB%

For background on the markings please see my first blog-Alien Crop Circles and the Baseball Swing

Players with high IFFB% (infield fly ball %) tend to be more level through the zone, while players with low career IFFB% tend to take a path that gets them working "on top of the ball". These curves are evident in these examples and so far seem to be consistent with other players.

Wells and Votto

Also worth noting is the higher IFFB% players are typically pull hitters, which gets them working the bat head around the ball more. This requires a more level bat through the zone and a greater dependency on perfect timing as the bats surface does not stay in the zone long enough. So if a pull hitter is late their barrel is not commited to contact as well as a player who gets the barrel into the zone earlier.

Welcome Home Prince

Mmmmm...Home run porch!

Stepping in the Bucket is OK for Markakis

Is stepping out always bad? It appears some players find some benefit from the front foot "bailing". I don't particularly worry about stepping in the bucket if the player is creating the necessary torque at heel plant. Notice Markakis has his shoulder down and in and that the shoulder moves straight toward the pitcher. In fact, the bailing out of the front foot may be creating an additional stretch, or more torque given the separation of the upper and lower halves.

Ted Williams "The Science of Hitting" Animation

First time view from a classic book,  Ted Williams "The Science of Hitting". I composited 10 images from the book so we could see it all work together for the first time.

Infield Pop-Ups and Alien Crop Circles

I must admit the first 2 blogs were painful to read. But here is to stickin' to it! I am thankful for the 2 of you that read this. :)

So, "infieldflyball" is almost a dirty word to me. I hate them more than strikeouts. I know that you at least put the ball in play and there is a chance it will fall in right after you hear 3 fielders say "I got it". Nonetheless, they are not my favorite. Show me a player that frequently pops the ball up in the infield and I'll show you a player that has problems with consistency because of a swing flaw. Now, I'm not suggesting that when any player pops up...but rather the ones that lead the league in IFFB% (Infield Fly ball). I believe there is a graphical pattern for the players that lead the league in IFFB%. As usual, my intent is to use their perfect swing, or hard hit ball as a reference, not an actual pop-up, any one can say..."see he cut underneath that one." I will also show examples of a players on the other side of the spectrum...Mr. Votto and Shin-Soo Choo.

Here are some examples, you might need to refer to my first blog "Alien Crop Circles and The Baseball Swing" to get some background. The top 2 lead the league (A. Simmons 17.8%, Jose Bautista 17.6%) in IFFB% and the bottom have the lowest IFFB% (Shin-Soo Choo 0.6%, Joey Votto 0.8%) YIKES!

Going into Launch, or front heel plant, the players have distinct differences. The pop-up kings have a pull with the left shoulder which gives them a little lunge toward the pitcher. Particularly, notice how far the eyes move forward.  The top row, get about 4-6" farther ahead. Also, the elbow is used as a timing move for the bottom row, as you can see the bat hardly moves when the elbow moves down to slot. Where as the top row hitters use the back elbow to tug a bit.

Pop up players also tend to share a characteristic that seems to put them more level  going into contact. The best work to get on top of the ball. I call the top row, barrel heavy hitters. These hitters tend to hit for power while average suffers a bit. Simmons had a .247 BABIP and Bautista .259 BABIP. The bottom duo have incredible BABIP, .338 and .360 respectively.

The Alien Crop Circles show an abrupt move to work on top of the ball, by the bottom two. These marks are not consistent for each pitch and contact location, but the better hitters only lose their ability to work on top of "pitchers pitches" (low and away) or when completely fooled. Then, and only then will they become barrel heavy. Also, there seems to be a distinct move to get the backside through which helps the bottom row players get on plane.

Bear with me, If these were golfers, we would say the top row are "two plane" golfers, while the bottom row are "one plane". Two plane golfers tend to work "over the top" and pull hook...two plane hitters in baseball tend to pull the ball. One plane hitters typically use the entire field.

Notice Joey "One Plane" Votto here. He uses his backside to hit through the ball. While Simmons uses a hard top hand whip, which is evident by the two red marks.

one plane hitter

two plane hitter

Obviously, both methods are effective and will get you to the show, but it appears one is better for consistency sake given the BABIP. Here is a list of top 10's from highest to lowest % IFFB. Screen capture taken from Fangraphs. Now, this is not meant to determine best and worst, as there are useful players on both ends for sure :) 

highest IFFB%

lowest IFFB%

So pop-ups are not good based on these numbers. BABIP is not the only distinction between the two groups, but the Line Drive % or LD% is glaringly different. So, the 2 plane and 1 plane theory seems to be consistent based on these two lists. Check them out on your own and see. Go to http://www.hittrackeronline.com/ and look for these players yourself. Look at the front view and pause the video at contact, take a screenshot and compare. 

So, does your up and coming prospect share the pop-up kings swing or does he do what the best in this category do? Alien Crop Circles appear to show some graphical trends that I believe should not be pushed aside for the thoughtful baseball scout, coaches as well as club recruiters. I will continue to show how Alien Crop Circles can communicate swing attributes to us now. What if there was a consistent graphical trend for the highest average hitters? I will explore in my next blog, Triple Crown and Other Alien Forces. 

The Wade Boggs Curve

Wade Boggs was in the MLB for 18yrs. He did not have overwhelming power numbers, but was good at stroking the ball to all fields and finding gaps. Studying my Alien Crop Circles and the Baseball Swing I found Boggs as the first anomaly to my theory that most "good"big league hitters are similar at the Launch position (when the stride heel plants). Again, the theory was that hands and knob path for high level hitters was very similar from player to player at Launch, and that the descending path to approach was consistent. Boggs main difference was that he had no descending path in the beginning as his hands were low enough to take a more direct approach to the ball.  Unlike the descending path of modern day players.


notice the descending marks from the top of the swing...this pattern is consistent for most modern hitters. Russell Martin (Left) is a career .255 hitter. His path to contact is a little more direct, and while he still has a ton of power, his consistency suffers. 

Bogg's hands were lower than his shoulders at Launch which, in my opinion, is a better starting position for contact hitters. However, the start of his swing was not what caught my attention. But it was the path in which he worked to the ball. >.300 hitters have a distinct move to contact, in which they get on plane with the on-coming pitch and do not concern themselves with driving their hands to the ball. So, Boggs demonstrates this move to perfection.

 

Hands at Launch. A little more classic posture here

 

The Boggs curve. Descending path is non-existent compared to modern players. There are two planes, the hands work on one which is on top of the oncoming pitch plane.

 If Boggs were merely trying to take his hands to the ball, the path would be down to contact, as the ball is traveling down. However, You can see he is working to get the hands above the barrel in order to stay on plane. This I have found is the main difference for the >.300 hitter. I don't think >.300 hitters have the better hand eye coordination or quicker bat, but their path to the ball gives them a more consistent chance at solid contact.

 The sub, or  <.300 hitters have the intent to get their hands to the ball more directly while the >.300's have a completely different idea or concept. I am not trying to make an argument that .300 path "produces" more than .270 path, as its obvious the concern with batting average has dwindled somewhat these days as the focus seems to be Slugging % (or total bases per at bat). So, contact does not overtake power in most cases...however, as we decide which mechanics are more useful for emulation we must focus on which mechanics drive us to more consistent contact and from that develop ourselves, whether we are a put the bat on the ball or swing for the fences type. Either style, requires contact...So from a hitting instructors point of view, I need to give players the tools to drive the ball consistently.

I have drills for helping players match the Boggs Curve, as do many instructors. My goal today isn't to give a new drill to achieve this as there are literally hundreds of drills that are useful and one drill will not create the next Wade Boggs. But this research I hope helps others when scouting new recruits, evaluating talent or helping you look at your players swing in a different light.

I think there is a graphical pattern that allows you to make certain predictions about a swing, given the data/stats that currently exist combined with video of these players swings. If a player leads the league in infield pop-up %...and the next 5 in line behind him show the same graphic pattern in the swing (Alien Crop Circles) then we can make certain predictions about other players with the same pattern.

In my opinion, there is a consistent path in the descending path to Approach for the modern day hitter. Also, there is a path that appears to be consistent with the high average hitters that is not visible in most sub .300 hitters as they move through Approach (before the player gives the barrel, or the final stages of bat lag). But what if there was a wealth of information beyond contact and average in these patterns? This is where I will go in the next blog as I'll compare "Alien Crop Circles" for  players that lead the league in IFFB% (Infield Fly Ball %), compared to Joey Votto's almost non-existent pop-up swing. Infield pop-ups are, in my opinion, the worst contact possible. So lets research what the worst compared to the  best look like in different hitting categories and see if there is a trend that is seen through each players graphical swing pattern.

Alien Crop Circles and the Baseball Swing

First blog post will be an adventure for the reader, as my writing is meh...Hope to get right to the point with my information and help the reader better understand the process of hitting. So, Here goes...

 I really went off the deep-end when I started talking to friends and associates about these "Alien Crop Circles" I had found in the baseball swing. I admit this approach is a bit weird and unfortunately I cannot offer this as an exact Science but I'll settle for a shoddy theory.

I started to look at youth players swings on video. I took an entire team of 8 yr old boys and captured their swings.  I wanted to see if there was a pattern, graphically speaking, that pointed toward similarities as well as differences. So, I used video analyzing software which allowed me to go frame to frame making marks with arrows, circles, squares, dotted lines...before I knew it I had marks everywhere and hadn't a clue why...The only thing I discovered was that based on the data I had collected, there was no rhyme or reason to the typical 8 yr olds swing. There was one part that seemed had possibilities...the path of the hands and knob of the bat. Weird I know...I am used to seeing people track the bat path and perhaps the bat through the zone, but I couldn't help but think the hands and knob path would tell us, something...Yet, as I looked it was clear that they each had completely different ideas around which way the hands and knob should move. I couldn't leave this area alone though because it appeared that if you were going to track the bat path, the hands and knob would be the most suitable given the knob will always indicate the position of the bats barrel in space.

I gave up on the 8yr old swing for a bit and started reviewing the pros...Was there a pattern or relationship that was evident around the hands and knob path? While my research is limited to 2 dimensional video I think what I found was ground breaking, at least for me. Like a lot of instructors I begin my tracking at the Launch point, which is when the stride foot heel plants and the swing begins. At this point, you will find good hitters stacked up pretty close when you look at them side by side. I began making a line from the knob of the bat to (roughly) the top of the top hand at each frame. Second, I would draw a circle around the knob itself. The beginning sequence for the pro's was almost identical. Eventually, I narrowed down my markings to 5-6 key points in the swing up to contact. The first 3, which are the initial movement as the hands work to get to approach or on plane were remarkably close for the pros.

With this data, I went back and took a closer look at the 8yr olds video. I made markings at similar key points and found the more consistent hitters for the 8yr olds had, while different, more similar descending start to approach as the pros. In fact, the best hitter had the same start as the pros. Wasn't sure what to do with this information...so I did nothing. I just continued to mark with "Alien Crop Circles" every home run for the rest of the year from hittrackeronline.com The relationship was staggering for me and shed more light to the idea that the swing is more like a Science than an Art.

I wasn't happy with settling for similarities in the descending path of the hands and knob...I wanted to see if the patterns following this would tell me anything beyond the start of the swing. So, I began to look at the final 2-3 markings (approach to contact) and see if these relationships would help determine, or better yet, predict a players performance based on one swing. I made sure to track their very best swing on a mistake pitch and not an 0-2 pitch they were fooled on. So, I began to group players by average best to worst. The pattern I found shocked me and eventually lead me to a pattern I call "The Wade Boggs Curve". Boggs wasn't known for his power numbers, but his ability to stroke the ball at will to all fields and find gaps. He started with his hands rather low, compared to todays hitters, but his path to the ball is similar to what the best do consistently.

In order to have something to write about in the future, I will leave you with this introduction to my shoddy theory and write more about it soon. I figure if this wets at least one appetite then it will be worth it. This "Alien Crop Circles" concept is something that is much bigger than my brain can wrap around so I will need help at determining what some of the data I have collected means and whether or not its meaningful. The mystery, or incomplete data, rings similarities to those crazy markings in the fields...Is it possible there is a meaning behind these patterns or am I like a farmer with a tractor and nothing better to do?